Welcome back to The Athletic's daily World Cup Predictions, your essential companion for every fixture of the 2026 tournament. Each day, Athletic writers Andy Jones and Elias Burke - backed by expert contributors from all 48 competing nations - go head-to-head against a guest subscriber, an algorithm called Algo, Stanley the Dog, and six-year-old Wilfred to see who really knows their football. Today's guest is Fabrizio from the United States, a proud supporter of Brazil and São Paulo. Good luck, Fabrizio.
The format is straightforward: for each game, we break down the context, name the key players, and issue a prediction - WIN for either side, or DRAW. We track correct picks by percentage, with winning streaks serving as the tiebreaker. If you're the type who enjoys testing your sports knowledge across different disciplines, you might also appreciate resources like how to bet on disc golf, but today all attention is firmly fixed on the world's most-watched tournament. Rankings update daily, so check back each morning to see whether the humans, the dog, the child, or the machine is coming out on top.
Matchday 5 Recap: A Historic Day of Draws
Monday produced four draws - the first time that has happened in a single World Cup day since 1958. European champions Spain were held to a goalless stalemate by Cape Verde, an archipelago nation of 529,000 people making their World Cup debut. The Blue Sharks sat in a disciplined low block and were protected brilliantly by 40-year-old goalkeeper Vozinha whenever Spain did break through. It was a unanimous pick for Spain across all our predictors, meaning everyone lost a point - and Stanley's three-game streak came to an abrupt end.
Belgium and Egypt shared the spoils 1-1 in Seattle, with Wilfred - our resident six-year-old - the only one who called a draw and earned the point. Saudi Arabia and Uruguay also drew 1-1, with Maxi Araujo equalising in the 80th minute to deny the Saudis, who had led at half-time. Everyone had backed Uruguay. Iran and New Zealand rounded things off with a 2-2 scoreline, the one result our experts did correctly call. That recovery lifted the Athletic writers level with the readers and Algo on correct picks, and the three-game best streak means we lead the leaderboard heading into Matchday 6.
Matchday 6 Predictions: France, Norway, and Argentina Take Centre Stage
The standout fixture of the day is undoubtedly France vs Senegal in Group G (kick-off 3pm ET, 8pm BST; Fox/BBC). Our experts describe it as a tie worthy of a quarter-final or semi-final, noting that France have reached back-to-back World Cup finals - winning in 2018 and finishing runners-up on penalties to Argentina in 2022. With Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise, and Ballon d'Or holder Ousmane Dembélé leading the attack, Les Bleus have the firepower to test anyone. Senegal, meanwhile, are led by the iconic Sadio Mané and the sharp Iliman Ndiaye, who impressed for Everton last season. Our experts note Senegal's AFCON title was subsequently stripped by the African confederation following a controversial walkoff during the final, which adds a complex backdrop to their World Cup campaign. The Streak Risk Factor sits at 3/5 - France are favourites, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. France WIN is the call from our experts, Fabrizio, Wilfred, and Algo. Stanley goes for a DRAW.
Later in Group G, Norway face Iraq (kick-off 6pm ET, 11pm BST; Fox/BBC). Erling Haaland makes his World Cup debut after Norway ended a 28-year absence from the tournament, having blazed through qualifying as the top-scoring nation. Haaland netted 16 times in qualification alone. Martin Ødegaard, fresh from captaining Arsenal to the Premier League title, adds elite creativity in midfield. Iraq are no pushovers - they held a rotated Spain side to a 1-1 draw in a pre-tournament friendly - but they face a steep challenge here. Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. Norway WIN across the board, except for Stanley, who backs Iraq.
Argentina enter the fray late in Group J against Algeria (kick-off 9pm ET, 2am BST; Fox/ITV). The defending champions are the clear favourites against a side returning to the World Cup for the first time since 2014, though Algeria possess genuine attacking quality capable of causing problems. Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. The smart money - and our panel - backs Argentina to begin their title defence with a win.
Today's Leaderboard Snapshot
- The Athletic Experts: Joint leaders on correct picks; best streak of 3
- Algo: Level on correct picks; best streak of 3
- Readers (cumulative): Level on correct picks; best streak of 3
- Wilfred (age 6): One point off the joint leaders
- Stanley the Dog: Three-game streak ended on Matchday 5
Want to make your own picks? The Athletic's interactive Soccer Pick'Ems feature lets you call every game in real time. And for a deeper look at how each of the 48 teams is tracking through the bracket, The Athletic's World Cup Tracker offers round-by-round probability forecasts, projected matchups, and live standings. Check back tomorrow for our Matchday 7 predictions - and to find out whether Fabrizio, Stanley, or Wilf has nudged ahead of us once again.